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Some grim cycling stats

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Cycling Equipment
Published
14 September 2007
Last activity
18 September 2007
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Greens
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  1. Per Greens:

    Quoted message said:

    I'm serious. I bet there are people that would at
    least nudge you out of the way with their bumpers if you don't move fast
    enough.

    There are people out there that will intentionally hit you -
    without a second thought. I've seen it done - once definitely,
    and once probably.
    --
    PeteCresswell

  2. Per [email hidden]:

    Quoted message said:

    But a handgun shoved into some lycra shorts if VERY noticable. I rode
    a few times in Brooklyn with a guy from the West Indies who rode
    around armed. Folks are few and far between who would have dared give
    this guy any [censored]!

    That's when I sold my Norton 750 and stopped riding motorcycles:
    when my bud's practice of carrying a loaded .44 magnum in his gas
    tank bag started sounding reasonable to me.

    It was one of those "Omygod *what* am I thinking!!!???" moments.
    --
    PeteCresswell

  3. Greens said:

    <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Greens said:

    "Wayne Pein" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > bdbafh wrote:

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    >> A situation that evoked a honk from a displeased motorist yesterday on
    >> PA State Route 463 west just northwest of where the BicyclePA south
    >> route heads to the north ...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    >> A right turn lane splits off to the right with no additional lane
    >> striping for bikes. I took the normal action of riding a few inches to
    >> the right of the white stripe that separated the through lane from the
    >> right turn lane. An angry, clueless motorist passes by closely,
    >> honking. This evokes the normal display of a hand signal from me,
    >> along with a "lets go, right now!" with me pointing to the shoulder.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    >> Obviously the motorist made an unsafe pass. They didn't take me up on
    >> the offer to discuss their infraction after dropping their weapon
    >> (exiting the vehicle).

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    >> Perhaps I'll change my tactic there to just take the lane instead of
    >> splitting the through lane and right turn lane, preventing such an
    >> unsafe pass next time.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > It sounds as if you were a through bicyclist but riding in the
    > right-turn-only lane. Such riding sends an ambiguous message and is not
    > in
    > accordance with the rules of the road. You should use proper
    > destination
    > positioning.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > Wayne

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Do you mean that he should have been in the middle of the road in the
    lane
    cars use to go straight as oppossed to the right lane where he feels
    safer
    but is designated for right turns only by cars? I think you're right, but
    then again I've seen motorists so confused that they might just roll
    right
    over me when the light turns green not out of avarice, but out of a
    desire
    to be courteous to the drivers behind them who are equipped with loud
    horns
    that they eagerly use. I'm serious. I bet there are people that would at
    least nudge you out of the way with their bumpers if you don't move fast
    enough.

    Quoted message said:

    I'm curious where you ride that has such an unpleasant atmosphere. I
    meet with the occasional jerk out on the road, but for the most part
    everywhere I've been, most people are ok. The numers of jerks and
    incompetents varies widely of course, but they are still always in the
    significant minority.

    Quoted message said:

    Joseph

    New York

    In the city? What part? Some parts are surely worse than others, but
    you also run into other types of prejudice and stereotyping that may
    be making people treat you extra poorly.

    Quoted message said:


    The majority of people are sane and polite. It only takes one insane driver
    in a lifetime to turn you into a stastic or a vegetable and while there
    aren't lunatics on every corner, there are more than enough lunatics to go
    around.

    That is of course true. But those wackos are everywhere, and for the
    most part they pay no heed to laws or fines. There is a stretch of
    road near my house that was recently changed from a 60km/h zone to a
    50km/h zone because it would be safer in theory. In the paper the
    other day they said that last week the cops had a radar post set up
    for 24 hours there and caught 2 different drivers going 140 in this 50
    zone! Those are the sorts of people to avoid, and those types don't
    give a [censored] if it's 50 or 60, they don't give a [censored] about anything.
    And no amount of schooling or infrastructure will get rid of those
    types of people. Those are the people that make riding dangerous.

    Joseph

  4. Greens said:

    <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Greens said:

    "bdbafh" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > On Sep 14, 6:33 am, "Greens" <[email hidden]> wrote:
    >> U.S. Bikers Less Safe Than European Counterparts

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    >> In the United States, cyclists are 12 times more likely than people
    >> in
    >> cars to die en route to their destinations. On a per-kilometer and
    >> per-trip
    >> basis, U.S. cyclists are twice as likely to die on the road as German
    >> cyclists, and more than three times as likely as Dutch cyclists. While
    >> cycling fatalities in all of these countries have fallen in the last
    >> 25
    >> years, U.S. cycling deaths have declined largely because of a drop in
    >> cycling, while in the Netherlands and Germany investments in
    >> infrastructure
    >> that make cycling safer account for much of the decline.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    >> http://www.thebicyclebum.com/

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > note: I didn't read the fine article.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > A situation that evoked a honk from a displeased motorist yesterday on
    > PA State Route 463 west just northwest of where the BicyclePA south
    > route heads to the north ...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > A right turn lane splits off to the right with no additional lane
    > striping for bikes. I took the normal action of riding a few inches to
    > the right of the white stripe that separated the through lane from the
    > right turn lane. An angry, clueless motorist passes by closely,
    > honking. This evokes the normal display of a hand signal from me,
    > along with a "lets go, right now!" with me pointing to the shoulder.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > Obviously the motorist made an unsafe pass. They didn't take me up on
    > the offer to discuss their infraction after dropping their weapon
    > (exiting the vehicle).

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > Perhaps I'll change my tactic there to just take the lane instead of
    > splitting the through lane and right turn lane, preventing such an
    > unsafe pass next time.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > -bdbafh

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Yea. They're very arrogant and sure of themselves while they're in their
    protective cages. And of course it's easier to keep a heavy firearm in a
    car
    than it is on a bike so don't be so eager to catch them.

    Quoted message said:

    But a handgun shoved into some lycra shorts if VERY noticable. I rode
    a few times in Brooklyn with a guy from the West Indies who rode
    around armed. Folks are few and far between who would have dared give
    this guy any [censored]!

    Quoted message said:

    Joseph

    True. but in reality it's hard to hit someone on foot with a handgun while
    you're on foot. It'd be much harder to hit someone in car while you're
    riding a bike or just got knocked off a bike. It's purpose is to give a
    false sense of security. The driver can circle around and stealthily come up
    from behind with his handgun and pick you off easily if he has a passenger
    to do the job. Or just hit you with the car.

    Even if you are successful in shooting a motorist, you'll have to explain
    yourself to the law and the law frowns on retribution and shooting at people
    on populated streets, especially when the shot are just trying to drive
    away. If you get away, you're now wanted and assumed guilty of something. Do
    you really want to ride your bike through that neighborhood again? (it might
    work in NYC but not my neighborhood. I'm just not anonymous enough here.)
    What you need is a big gun and a international teleporter.

    This guy was a nut-case anyway, and as those sorts are a magnet for
    problems, I ended up keeping my distance from him.

    Most confrontations don't happen anyway because the drivers are too
    scared to stop and get out of their cage, but for the few that
    do... ;-)

    Joseph

  5. (PeteCresswell) said:

    It was one of those "Omygod *what* am I thinking!!!???" moments.

    I know a guy who sold his motorcycle after a different "OMG what am I
    thinking!?!!?" moment: He had purchased a few different helmets but
    all had this problem with the visors getting fogged up when he would
    ride fast in the mountains of Switzerland where he lived. One day he
    realized it was fogging up because he was screaming the whole time
    without knowing it.

    Joseph

  6. <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Greens said:

    <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    news:[email hidden]...

    I'm just saying I'm wary of comparing apples and oranges. The numbers
    are skewed by the fact that a huge number of people in Holland and
    Germany use bikes in ways that are not that common in the US. They
    ride them at a leisurely pace in a congested urban environment. If I
    were to take a 100 mile ride on some random American country road I
    don't think I'd be 3x as likely to be hit than if I were to take a 100
    mile ride in Holland. They are probably reasonably similar in terms of
    risk. But if you want to talk about safety per distance, in the US my
    100 mile ride on a moderatly dangerous country road also has some
    number of "safe" miles riddden by other cyclists putting around in
    town. Maybe 100. In Holland my 100 mile ride in a moderatly dangerous
    road would be offset by thousdands of safe miles ridden by others.
    This isn't an argument for not having proper infrastructure, just
    pointing out that the populations of bike users are vastly different.
    And it's not just infrastructure that makes it that way.

    Joseph


    An interesting commentary on both sides. Friends of mine recently returned
    from a bike tour in Italy. Italian car drivers are reknowned for being
    somewhat erratic in urban areas and fast on highways. I am told it's a
    cultural thing.

    My friends described their tour route as narrow highways and urban roads
    with zero shoulder, barely wide enough for two cars to pass. On the first
    day they thought they were dead, as traffic was fairly constant. However
    they were pleasantly surprised by the consistent actions of the drivers -
    they would follow closely until a passing gap opened, then pass the bikers
    quickly. In other words, they did what I would call the right and safe
    thing. Nobody got squeezed off the road by a driver who was disrespectful
    of other people's safety.

    I bike commute somewhere between 50-60 miles per week in Portland, OR,
    arguably one of the more bike-friendly towns in the US. I am also a safety
    geek, one of the few bike commuters I know that doesn't ride through red
    lights or take sidewalk shortcuts. In other words, I'm not the guy a driver
    wants to run over for pissing him off. However, I am amazed at the number
    of drivers who are incapable of backing off on the gas pedal to give a
    cyclist some room in a tight situation.

    Perhaps another generation of gas price hikes will add enough bikers onto US
    roads that a new crop of drivers will consider them equals. I think this is
    where Europe is way ahead of us, they see biking as a legit form of
    transport for everyday people, unlike in the States where cars are all.

    Just my $.02

  7. Quoted message said:
    (PeteCresswell) said:

    It was one of those "Omygod *what* am I thinking!!!???" moments.

    I know a guy who sold his motorcycle after a different "OMG what am I
    thinking!?!!?" moment: He had purchased a few different helmets but
    all had this problem with the visors getting fogged up when he would
    ride fast in the mountains of Switzerland where he lived. One day he
    realized it was fogging up because he was screaming the whole time
    without knowing it.

    Joseph

    thank you....

    I want a motorbike, but as my father put it, "you better have your
    organ donor card updated."

  8. "(PeteCresswell)" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    Per Greens:

    Quoted message said:

    In Germany and The Netherlands the motoist almost always gets the
    majority...

    Anybody seen any numbers on the relative percentage of drivers
    talking on cell phones, text messaging, and/or doing email while
    driving in the USA vs other countries?
    --
    PeteCresswell

    Hah! I had an appointment with a podiatrist recently. He came in for my
    visit still talking and laughing with someone outside in the hall or in
    another room. I got [censored] and told him I wanted my 18 seconds of full
    attention per doctor visit. (That's how long a doctor listens to a patient
    before coming up with some sort of plan to treat them according to a book I
    read called "How Doctors Think" or something like that.) At that point he
    pulled out some kind of gadget and started texting. He spent the whole
    appointment texting to his correspondent while defiantly staring at me.

    You bet your ass they're all on their phones texting while driving. at most
    you've got the full attention of a third of their brain.

  9. <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Greens said:

    <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    On Sep 14, 8:06 pm, "Greens" <[email hidden]> wrote:
    > "autopi" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    Quoted message said:

    >news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    > >i recently read something--i think it was linked off bikesnobnyc--
    > > about cycling accidents in brooklyn, and the author claimed that in
    > > a
    > > large majority of cases, it was the cyclist who was at fault.
    > > certainly this corresponds to what i see on my commute--bikers
    > > riding
    > > through busy intersections, going the wrong way down one-way
    > > streets,
    > > stopping in the middle of a busy bike lane, etc.. does anyone have
    > > information about this? are cyclists in the US more reckless than
    > > counterparts in europe?

    Quoted message said:

    > > however, let it be said that in my experience, drivers in france are
    > > much more courteous and competent at sharing the road than their
    > > american brethren.

    Quoted message said:

    > > i also suspect part of the difference may come down to difference in
    > > attitude. in some locales, cycling is understood as a normal means
    > > of
    > > transport. in the US, only crazy people, kids and lycra-wearing
    > > extremists (i.e., crazy people) ride bikes on the road. not that
    > > people are intentionally running bikers off the road for this
    > > reason,
    > > but it may mean drivers are less likely to keep in mind the need to
    > > give adequate room to cyclists, look before opening doors or making
    > > a
    > > turn, etc..

    Quoted message said:

    > Cyclists in the USA have little reason to respect motorists, cops or
    > the
    > law. All of them act as though cyclists are impeding their progress.
    > Cycling
    > is seen as something for children and people who've never grown up and
    > also
    > the aforementioned fitness fanatics. Infrastructure, law enforcement
    > are
    > designed in such a way that they wordlessly shout, "Get off the road
    > with
    > that stupid bicycle, you idiot! Get a car! Get a life! I'm late for my
    > nose
    > piercing! I gotta get my pit bull a new collar and the store closes in
    > five
    > minutes! I can't help it I'm late. I was all caught up in Dr. Phil's
    > show."

    Quoted message said:

    My cycling experience in the US is in NYC, Chicago, LA, and I've
    ridden in Rockies in Colorado. All those places were vastly more
    pleasant to ride in than the European cities I've ridden in: Paris,
    London, Milan, Oslo, Amsterdam, Barcelona. Those European citeis were
    just too crowded and the drivers drove much faster (when not sitting
    in a jam) and put their cars WAY too close to me. Those drivers seemed
    to know what they were doing, but it was my life they were gambling
    with. In the US I was always given a much wider berth and the driving
    scene is just much more relaxed. Out on country roads, I have been
    most comfortable in Spain and Italy, despite how fast they drivers and
    how many cars as they seem aware of me and the other road users. This
    has nothing to do with infrastructure. Nor enforcement. In Paris I saw
    a guy get hit on his bike right in front of a police officer who did
    nothing other than watch as the driver and the rider argued a bit then
    exchanged info.

    Quoted message said:

    Again, I'm not arguing against proper infrastructure, nor suggesting
    that riding in some semi-suburban cities in the US is pleasant, I'm
    just saying that the cyclist-motorist relationship isn't made by cops
    or bike paths.

    Quoted message said:

    Joseph

    WOOOOOOooooo! Thanks for the info, Mister World Traveler.

    You chose to mock, but direct experience is a valuable thing.

    Joseph

    Actually I enjoyed your post. It was thoughtful and intelligent. I made the
    stupid comment for comic relief. Sorry.

  10. "Wayne Pein" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Peter Cole said:
    Jay Beattie said:

    Now, if you are going from an area of zero bicycles or a couple of
    bicycles to a lot, then there will be a traffic calming effect --
    maybe. But the studies that I recall reading used city-wide numbers
    without reference to bicycle populations in particular areas, which is
    very important. Where you have any significant, existing population
    of cyclists, doubling that population does not double driver awareness
    or account for the reducion in injury statistics. That is simply a
    function of populations and statistics. -- Jay Beattie.

    Well there are a lot of variables intertwined, perhaps it's not possible
    to (dis)prove the "eeek, there's a cyclist" theory. Perhaps I didn't read
    the studies as closely or critically as you have, but it always seemed to
    make an intuitive sense, not that intuition is always right. I'll try to
    look at it further.

    One could argue that because cyclists are relatively rare, their
    uniqueness results in ambiguity and caution on the part of motorists.

    Wayne

    When lots of people cycle, you're more likely to have motorists on the road
    who also cycle. In theory they will have a better understanding of the
    cyclist's problems and desires and also have more respect for your right to
    be on the road. In Holland most of the motorists also cycle. They don't see
    bicyclists as weirdos or enemies.

  11. "autopi" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    i'm not sure anyone here is disagreeing about anything--but i'm not
    sure. certainly i agree that it is NOT true that increasing the # of
    cyclists necessarily causes a decrease in # of injuries per cyclist.
    as i understand it, that's what your example shows. of course it does
    not show that this never happens, only that it does not always happen.

    i am confused as to what it means to say that awareness is an
    "individual" vs. a "population" thing?

    i am also confused as to what people mean by "awareness." in jay's
    first post, he seemed to be thinking of awareness as "consciousness of
    whether there are 1, 2 ... n # of cyclists on the streets in a given
    town at a given time." (i agree with clive that that misses the point
    of awareness by a country mile; awareness i would have thought meant
    that a given driver is more likely to think about looking over his
    shoulder before swinging open his door, to not try to squeeze by a
    cyclist when there isn't room, etc..) in his later post, jay is
    talking about driver behavior--a very different thing.

    and then wayne seems to agree with jay that awareness is not an
    important factor in explaining auto-bike collisions, but then says
    that he subscribes to the proposition that "the more cyclists the
    safer"--which as i understand jay, is exactly what *he* rejects.

    so basically it seems to me that no one is actually talking about the
    same thing here, so it's hard to see if there's any point on which
    anyone actually disagrees.

    "it's hard to see if there's any point on which
    anyone actually disagrees"

    That won't keep a huge flame war from breaking out.

    People pointing out that there is no disagreement will then be told that
    there is. This infuriating stupidity will eventually set off even the most
    level headed of posters. At that point the flaming troll's allies will rush
    to their comrade's defense with allegations that "you said this or that"
    when you haven't said that or that doesn't have anything to do with anything
    and so on and on...

  12. <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Greens said:

    <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    On Sep 14, 8:43 pm, "Greens" <[email hidden]> wrote:
    > "Wayne Pein" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    Quoted message said:

    >news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    > > bdbafh wrote:

    Quoted message said:

    > >> A situation that evoked a honk from a displeased motorist yesterday
    > >> on
    > >> PA State Route 463 west just northwest of where the BicyclePA south
    > >> route heads to the north ...

    Quoted message said:

    > >> A right turn lane splits off to the right with no additional lane
    > >> striping for bikes. I took the normal action of riding a few inches
    > >> to
    > >> the right of the white stripe that separated the through lane from
    > >> the
    > >> right turn lane. An angry, clueless motorist passes by closely,
    > >> honking. This evokes the normal display of a hand signal from me,
    > >> along with a "lets go, right now!" with me pointing to the
    > >> shoulder.

    Quoted message said:

    > >> Obviously the motorist made an unsafe pass. They didn't take me up
    > >> on
    > >> the offer to discuss their infraction after dropping their weapon
    > >> (exiting the vehicle).

    Quoted message said:

    > >> Perhaps I'll change my tactic there to just take the lane instead
    > >> of
    > >> splitting the through lane and right turn lane, preventing such an
    > >> unsafe pass next time.

    Quoted message said:

    > > It sounds as if you were a through bicyclist but riding in the
    > > right-turn-only lane. Such riding sends an ambiguous message and is
    > > not
    > > in
    > > accordance with the rules of the road. You should use proper
    > > destination
    > > positioning.

    Quoted message said:

    > > Wayne

    Quoted message said:

    > Do you mean that he should have been in the middle of the road in the
    > lane
    > cars use to go straight as oppossed to the right lane where he feels
    > safer
    > but is designated for right turns only by cars? I think you're right,
    > but
    > then again I've seen motorists so confused that they might just roll
    > right
    > over me when the light turns green not out of avarice, but out of a
    > desire
    > to be courteous to the drivers behind them who are equipped with loud
    > horns
    > that they eagerly use. I'm serious. I bet there are people that would
    > at
    > least nudge you out of the way with their bumpers if you don't move
    > fast
    > enough.

    Quoted message said:

    I'm curious where you ride that has such an unpleasant atmosphere. I
    meet with the occasional jerk out on the road, but for the most part
    everywhere I've been, most people are ok. The numers of jerks and
    incompetents varies widely of course, but they are still always in the
    significant minority.

    Quoted message said:

    Joseph

    New York

    In the city? What part? Some parts are surely worse than others, but
    you also run into other types of prejudice and stereotyping that may
    be making people treat you extra poorly.

    Quoted message said:


    The majority of people are sane and polite. It only takes one insane
    driver
    in a lifetime to turn you into a stastic or a vegetable and while there
    aren't lunatics on every corner, there are more than enough lunatics to
    go
    around.

    That is of course true. But those wackos are everywhere, and for the
    most part they pay no heed to laws or fines. There is a stretch of
    road near my house that was recently changed from a 60km/h zone to a
    50km/h zone because it would be safer in theory. In the paper the
    other day they said that last week the cops had a radar post set up
    for 24 hours there and caught 2 different drivers going 140 in this 50
    zone! Those are the sorts of people to avoid, and those types don't
    give a [censored] if it's 50 or 60, they don't give a [censored] about anything.
    And no amount of schooling or infrastructure will get rid of those
    types of people. Those are the people that make riding dangerous.

    Joseph

    I live out in the country. You might think it's safer out here, but I
    believe cycling is more of a novelty out here than in NYC. Certainly I've
    never seen anyone but myself in the left hand turn lane at a light. I
    stopped doing it since one guy behind me kept edging up with his bumper
    while the light was still red. I had the feeling he was trying to tell me
    that as soon as it turned green he was going to go as though no one was in
    front of him. There's a kind of body language to cars sometimes.

  13. Greens said:

    "Wayne Pein" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    One could argue that because cyclists are relatively rare, their
    uniqueness results in ambiguity and caution on the part of motorists.

    Wayne

    When lots of people cycle, you're more likely to have motorists on the road
    who also cycle. In theory they will have a better understanding of the
    cyclist's problems and desires and also have more respect for your right to
    be on the road. In Holland most of the motorists also cycle. They don't see
    bicyclists as weirdos or enemies.

    In theory, according to ..... YOU?

    It seems that only YOU are the one who believes motorists are our
    enemies. True, there are some who are. But they contribute such a small
    percentage of the collisions that its practically irrelevant.

    In Holland, they hate bicyclists who dare use the road. In fact, on many
    roads you cannot bicycle. The bicycle farcilities are great if you want
    to go 8 mph. 8 mph is no big time penalty when your trip is only 1/2 mile.

    Wayne

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    in florida, a cyclist can be run over dead in the bike lane and
    forgetabboutit.

  15. (PeteCresswell) said:


    That's when I sold my Norton 750 and stopped riding motorcycles:

    I stopped riding my motorcycle after 18(!) cars pulled out in front of
    me causing me to slow-down each time on a single twenty mile drive. Yes,
    my headlight was on, they saw me, and they didn't care.

  16. autopi said:

    i'm not sure anyone here is disagreeing about anything--but i'm not
    sure. certainly i agree that it is NOT true that increasing the # of
    cyclists necessarily causes a decrease in # of injuries per cyclist.
    as i understand it, that's what your example shows. of course it does
    not show that this never happens, only that it does not always happen.

    i am confused as to what it means to say that awareness is an
    "individual" vs. a "population" thing?

    i am also confused as to what people mean by "awareness." in jay's
    first post, he seemed to be thinking of awareness as "consciousness of
    whether there are 1, 2 ... n # of cyclists on the streets in a given
    town at a given time." (i agree with clive that that misses the point
    of awareness by a country mile; awareness i would have thought meant
    that a given driver is more likely to think about looking over his
    shoulder before swinging open his door, to not try to squeeze by a
    cyclist when there isn't room, etc..) in his later post, jay is
    talking about driver behavior--a very different thing.

    and then wayne seems to agree with jay that awareness is not an
    important factor in explaining auto-bike collisions, but then says
    that he subscribes to the proposition that "the more cyclists the
    safer"--which as i understand jay, is exactly what *he* rejects.

    so basically it seems to me that no one is actually talking about the
    same thing here, so it's hard to see if there's any point on which
    anyone actually disagrees.

    All I am getting at is that injury rate falls as a function of
    populations and statistics. For example, imagine a chicken coop with
    one chicken. A fox gets in to the coop and eats the chicken. The
    day's mortality rate is 100% Now, the following day, we put 20
    chickens in the coop. The fox gets in and eats one. The day's
    mortality rate is only 5%. Wow, that's a huge decline. It must mean
    that the fox has gained respect and understanding for the chickens.

    In our scenario with bikes, some percentage drop will be due to
    awareness and traffic calming caused by the presence of bicyclists --
    but some reduction will simply be a "safety in numbers" sort of thing
    that results when you increase population. -- Jay Beattie.

  17. vey said:

    I stopped riding my motorcycle after 18(!) cars pulled out in front of
    me causing me to slow-down each time on a single twenty mile drive.
    Yes, my headlight was on, they saw me, and they didn't care.

    Oy, vey.

  18. "Mamba" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    An interesting commentary on both sides. Friends of mine recently
    returned from a bike tour in Italy. Italian car drivers are reknowned for
    being somewhat erratic in urban areas and fast on highways. I am told
    it's a cultural thing.

    Put another way, they're a bunch of lunatics when in cars :-) They drive
    like the stereotype of an urban cyclist.

    Quoted message said:

    My friends described their tour route as narrow highways and urban roads
    with zero shoulder, barely wide enough for two cars to pass. On the first
    day they thought they were dead, as traffic was fairly constant. However
    they were pleasantly surprised by the consistent actions of the drivers -
    they would follow closely until a passing gap opened, then pass the bikers
    quickly. In other words, they did what I would call the right and safe
    thing. Nobody got squeezed off the road by a driver who was disrespectful
    of other people's safety.

    Agreed. Despite their lunacy - or possibly because of it? - they seem to be
    quite good at handling cyclists.

    I remember a discussion with somebody who'd come back from a holiday here
    bemoaning the lack of shoulders on the roads. Said he'd never come back
    because of it. Which is a pity, coz we've got some darn good riding. The
    drivers aren't as courteous as the mainland Europeans, but on the whole they
    do a pretty good job of not killing you, especially once you're off the main
    roads - the experience is normally as described above.
    Said gentleman has since been on holiday to France I believe, and has
    discovered that lack of shoulders is nothing to do with safety. Not sure if
    he's made the link to riding here yet though.

    cheers,
    clive

  19. Bill Sornson said:
    vey said:

    I stopped riding my motorcycle after 18(!) cars pulled out in front of
    me causing me to slow-down each time on a single twenty mile drive.
    Yes, my headlight was on, they saw me, and they didn't care.

    Oy, vey.


    Oy, Sornson.

  20. "Jay Beattie" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    All I am getting at is that injury rate falls as a function of
    populations and statistics. For example, imagine a chicken coop with
    one chicken. A fox gets in to the coop and eats the chicken. The
    day's mortality rate is 100% Now, the following day, we put 20
    chickens in the coop. The fox gets in and eats one. The day's
    mortality rate is only 5%. Wow, that's a huge decline. It must mean
    that the fox has gained respect and understanding for the chickens.

    In our scenario with bikes, some percentage drop will be due to
    awareness and traffic calming caused by the presence of bicyclists --
    but some reduction will simply be a "safety in numbers" sort of thing
    that results when you increase population. -- Jay Beattie.

    Except the exposure to accidents doesn't work in the way you describe. One
    bike rider on a given journey will have X number of interactions with a car,
    each with a probability of a crash. Two riders doing the same journey won't
    have X interactions, they'll have 2X - it's like for your 20 chickens,
    you've got 20 foxes.

    I think you may need to work on some simple probablity theory :-)

    cheers,
    clive

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