San Sebastian Predictions

[B. Lafferty]

1. Basso
2. ??
3. ??
4. Hincapie ;-)

Simeoni will attempt a break and will be pulled back by Postal and CSC.

 

[Sonarrat]

Valverde.

 

[B. Lafferty]

"Sonarrat" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:BD39B110.76F7%[email protected]...
> Valverde.
>
Quite possibly.

 

[Davide Tosi]

"B. Lafferty" <[email protected]> wrote:

>1. Basso

Basso can't sprint to save his life and there's just too much distance
between the top of the Jaizkibel and the finish line.
This is race for riders with a good combination of climbing and sprinting
skills: Astarloa, Bettini, Perdiguero, Rebellin, Valverde. Cunego may be
the underdog, it depends on his present state of form.

 

[[email protected]]

"B. Lafferty" <[email protected]> writes:

> "Sonarrat" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:BD39B110.76F7%[email protected]...
> > Valverde.
> >
> Quite possibly.
>
>

Hmmmm. Just statistically, Dossard No. 1 has a fair chance of a repeat

YEAR WINNER
2003 Paolo Bettini, ITA
2002 Laurent Jalabert, FRA
2001 Laurent Jalabert, FRA
2000 Erik Dekker, HOL
1999 Francesco Casagrande, ITA
1998 Francesco Casagrande, ITA
1997 Davide Rebellin, ITA
1996 Udo Bolts, GER
1995 Lance Armstrong, USA
1994 Armand De Las Cuevas, FRA
1993 Claudio Chiappucci, ITA
1992 Raul Alcala, MEX
1991 Gianni Bugno, ITA
1990 Miguel Indurain, ESP
1989 Gerhard Zadrobilek, AUT
1988 Gert-Jan Theunisse, HOL
1987 Marino Lejarreta, ESP
1986 Inaki Gaston, ESP
1985 Adri Van Der Poel, HOL
1984 Niki Ruttimann, SWI
1983 Claude Criquelion, BEL
1982 Marino Lejarreta, ESP
1981 Marino Lejarreta, ESP

--
le Vent a Dos, Davey Crockett
Six Day Site: http://members.rogers.com/sixday/sixday.html

 

[Chris]

"B. Lafferty" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> 1. Basso
> 2. ??
> 3. ??
> 4. Hincapie ;-)
>
> Simeoni will attempt a break and will be pulled back by Postal and CSC.

It certainly is a great course for the kind of form Basso has to win alone
or for Hincapie to sprint from a small break (has he ever finished alone
over such a selective course?)

 

[Chris]

<[email protected]> wrote in message
news:87y8krw14s.fsf@cpe00024481c080-cm0f2069983361.cpe.net.cable.rogers.com.
...
> "B. Lafferty" <[email protected]> writes:
>
> > "Sonarrat" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> > news:BD39B110.76F7%[email protected]...
> > > Valverde.
> > >
> > Quite possibly.
> >
> >
>
> Hmmmm. Just statistically, Dossard No. 1 has a fair chance of a repeat.

A lot of those winners were fresh from strong Tour performances but not all
of them. I think Casagrande missed the '99 Tour (for just one exception).
Gosh, I might count up the winners that had just come from winning a stage
that year...I think in 1992 (or '91?) there were several stages in Spain and
one stage was the same as the course for San Sebastian. That was the year
Virenque broke away with someone else to win the yellow jersey for a few
stages (for RMO) before handing it over to another Frenchman on RMO...I
can't remember his name right now, only his face. Anyway, this is a great
course and because of that and the time of year there always seems to be a
worthy winner. It was Armstrong's first professional race where he finished
DFL in 1992 (IIRC). He was fresh from finishing about 15th in the Olympics
Road Race as an amateur (also in Spain).

>
> YEAR WINNER
> 2003 Paolo Bettini, ITA
> 2002 Laurent Jalabert, FRA
> 2001 Laurent Jalabert, FRA
> 2000 Erik Dekker, HOL
> 1999 Francesco Casagrande, ITA
> 1998 Francesco Casagrande, ITA
> 1997 Davide Rebellin, ITA
> 1996 Udo Bolts, GER
> 1995 Lance Armstrong, USA
> 1994 Armand De Las Cuevas, FRA
> 1993 Claudio Chiappucci, ITA
> 1992 Raul Alcala, MEX
> 1991 Gianni Bugno, ITA
> 1990 Miguel Indurain, ESP
> 1989 Gerhard Zadrobilek, AUT
> 1988 Gert-Jan Theunisse, HOL
> 1987 Marino Lejarreta, ESP
> 1986 Inaki Gaston, ESP
> 1985 Adri Van Der Poel, HOL
> 1984 Niki Ruttimann, SWI
> 1983 Claude Criquelion, BEL
> 1982 Marino Lejarreta, ESP
> 1981 Marino Lejarreta, ESP
>
> --
> le Vent a Dos, Davey Crockett
> Six Day Site: http://members.rogers.com/sixday/sixday.html

 

[Davide Tosi]

"Chris" <[email protected]> wrote:

>A lot of those winners were fresh from strong Tour performances but not all
>of them. I think Casagrande missed the '99 Tour (for just one exception).
>Gosh, I might count up the winners that had just come from winning a stage
>that year...I think in 1992 (or '91?) there were several stages in Spain and
>one stage was the same as the course for San Sebastian. That was the year
>Virenque broke away with someone else to win the yellow jersey for a few
>stages (for RMO) before handing it over to another Frenchman on RMO...I
>can't remember his name right now, only his face.

Pascal Lino

 

[Diablo Scott]

Davide Tosi wrote:

> Basso can't sprint to save his life and there's just too much distance
> between the top of the Jaizkibel and the finish line.
> This is race for riders with a good combination of climbing and sprinting
> skills: Astarloa, Bettini, Perdiguero, Rebellin, Valverde. Cunego may be
> the underdog, it depends on his present state of form.
>

Well done DT. Best RBR predictions I've seen in a WC race so far this
year. We should have a better format for these pics though, to make
judging the results more objective.

1 Miguel Angel Martin Perdiguero (Spa) Saunier Duval-Prodir
2 Paolo Bettini (Ita) Quick.Step-Davitamon
3 Davide Rebellin (Ita) Gerolsteiner
6 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC
12 Igor Astarloa (Spa) Lampre
21 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Saeco
61 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Comunidad Valenciana-Kelme

--
My bike blog:
http://diabloscott.blogspot.com/

 

[Chris]

"Davide Tosi" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> "Chris" <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> >A lot of those winners were fresh from strong Tour performances but not
all
> >of them. I think Casagrande missed the '99 Tour (for just one exception).
> >Gosh, I might count up the winners that had just come from winning a
stage
> >that year...I think in 1992 (or '91?) there were several stages in Spain
and
> >one stage was the same as the course for San Sebastian. That was the year
> >Virenque broke away with someone else to win the yellow jersey for a few
> >stages (for RMO) before handing it over to another Frenchman on RMO...I
> >can't remember his name right now, only his face.
>
> Pascal Lino

Exactly right, thanks. I forget his name a lot because he almost seems like
a composite of other French riders. He was supposed to be a big talent and I
can't recall anything he did other than borrow the yellow jersey that year.

 

[John Forrest Tomlinson]

On Mon, 9 Aug 2004 10:38:11 -0700, "Chris"
<[email protected]> wrote:

>
>"Davide Tosi" <[email protected]> wrote in message

>>
>> Pascal Lino
>
>Exactly right, thanks. I forget his name a lot because he almost seems like
>a composite of other French riders. He was supposed to be a big talent and I
>can't recall anything he did other than borrow the yellow jersey that year.
>

He looked really good on a bike. Much better than Virenque.

JT

 

[Chris]

"John Forrest Tomlinson" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> On Mon, 9 Aug 2004 10:38:11 -0700, "Chris"
> <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> >
> >"Davide Tosi" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>
> >>
> >> Pascal Lino
> >
> >Exactly right, thanks. I forget his name a lot because he almost seems
like
> >a composite of other French riders. He was supposed to be a big talent
and I
> >can't recall anything he did other than borrow the yellow jersey that
year.
> >
>
> He looked really good on a bike. Much better than Virenque.
>
> JT

Oh yeah, he had a lot going for him. He really did. Unfortunately for him
that was back in the days when there were still a lot of French fans that
expected the "next Hinault" to emerge at any moment. I don't recall that
Virenque was ever favored or placed under that kind of pressure. That may be
partly why Virenque was driven to get the attention at all costs. First to
go through that meat grinder was Jean-Francois Bernard and Chas Mottet, then
Jalabert, Gilles Delion, Lino and at least another dozen guys I can't think
of right now. I suppose even Fignon can be put in this category but since he
achieved some success, things are different for him. He brought that
pressure to himself by winning the Tour so very young and then repeating all
before Hinault even earned his 5th Tour. Things may have been so different
for Fignon if Hinault or Lemond never lost time to injuries. Guimard would
have likely got a lot more out of him if he had been allowed to grow in to
the status that came (too early) with those first 2 wins. Please note I am
not attributing virtual wins to anyone...

 

[Curtis L. Russell]

On Tue, 10 Aug 2004 08:57:23 -0700, "Chris"
<[email protected]> wrote:

>Things may have been so different
>for Fignon if Hinault or Lemond never lost time to injuries.

Or if Fignon hadn't been suffering from debilitating maladies himself,
maybe things would have been different for Hinault and Lemond. That's
definitely a sword that would cut both ways.


Curtis L. Russell
Odenton, MD (USA)
Just someone on two wheels...

 

[Davide Tosi]

"Chris" <[email protected]> wrote:

>"John Forrest Tomlinson" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>news:[email protected]...
>> On Mon, 9 Aug 2004 10:38:11 -0700, "Chris"
>> <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>> >
>> >"Davide Tosi" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>>
>> >>
>> >> Pascal Lino
>> >
>> >Exactly right, thanks. I forget his name a lot because he almost seems
>like
>> >a composite of other French riders. He was supposed to be a big talent
>and I
>> >can't recall anything he did other than borrow the yellow jersey that
>year.
>> >
>>
>> He looked really good on a bike. Much better than Virenque.
>>
>> JT
>
>Oh yeah, he had a lot going for him. He really did. Unfortunately for him
>that was back in the days when there were still a lot of French fans that
>expected the "next Hinault" to emerge at any moment. I don't recall that
>Virenque was ever favored or placed under that kind of pressure. That may be
>partly why Virenque was driven to get the attention at all costs. First to
>go through that meat grinder was Jean-Francois Bernard and Chas Mottet, then
>Jalabert, Gilles Delion, Lino and at least another dozen guys I can't think
>of right now. I suppose even Fignon can be put in this category but since he
>achieved some success, things are different for him. He brought that
>pressure to himself by winning the Tour so very young and then repeating all
>before Hinault even earned his 5th Tour. Things may have been so different
>for Fignon if Hinault or Lemond never lost time to injuries. Guimard would
>have likely got a lot more out of him if he had been allowed to grow in to
>the status that came (too early) with those first 2 wins.

If it wasn't for lenticular wheels and aero-bars he would have scored 2
Giro/Tour doubles and would be now ranked among the top GT riders ever.
A bit of it was just bad luck and a bit of it was Guimard not being
technologically up to date.

 

[Mike Owens]

"Davide Tosi" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> "Chris" <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> >"John Forrest Tomlinson" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> >news:[email protected]...
> >> On Mon, 9 Aug 2004 10:38:11 -0700, "Chris"
> >> <[email protected]> wrote:
> >>
> >> >
> >> >"Davide Tosi" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> Pascal Lino
> >> >
> >> >Exactly right, thanks. I forget his name a lot because he almost seems
> >like
> >> >a composite of other French riders. He was supposed to be a big talent
> >and I
> >> >can't recall anything he did other than borrow the yellow jersey that
> >year.
> >> >
> >>
> >> He looked really good on a bike. Much better than Virenque.
> >>
> >> JT
> >
> >Oh yeah, he had a lot going for him. He really did. Unfortunately for him
> >that was back in the days when there were still a lot of French fans that
> >expected the "next Hinault" to emerge at any moment. I don't recall that
> >Virenque was ever favored or placed under that kind of pressure. That may
be
> >partly why Virenque was driven to get the attention at all costs. First
to
> >go through that meat grinder was Jean-Francois Bernard and Chas Mottet,
then
> >Jalabert, Gilles Delion, Lino and at least another dozen guys I can't
think
> >of right now. I suppose even Fignon can be put in this category but since
he
> >achieved some success, things are different for him. He brought that
> >pressure to himself by winning the Tour so very young and then repeating
all
> >before Hinault even earned his 5th Tour. Things may have been so
different
> >for Fignon if Hinault or Lemond never lost time to injuries. Guimard
would
> >have likely got a lot more out of him if he had been allowed to grow in
to
> >the status that came (too early) with those first 2 wins.
>
> If it wasn't for lenticular wheels and aero-bars he would have scored 2
> Giro/Tour doubles and would be now ranked among the top GT riders ever.
> A bit of it was just bad luck and a bit of it was Guimard not being
> technologically up to date.
>
Plus a podium finish in Paris-Roubaix.
-Mike