A lot on FTP numbers have been bandied about on this thread. As I am in the 70-74 y-o class, I'm particularly concerned about what's possible there.
The UCI World Hour Record for this group was set in 2014 by Mike Cotgreave of Great Britain at 41+km. Of course this was done on a track so rolling resistance was minimal, no wind, etc. Analytic Cycling estimates the power to ride at 41kph at about 225w to 255w, depending on CdA and atmospheric conditions. We can probably assume that Cotgreave's CdA was pretty good. That puts his FTP at something less than 250w for the World Record holder at 70 years old.
For my best 10 mile TT last year I averaged 226w. My FTP was about 210w. Of course that was coming off a double knee replacement and a broken femur and hip all within the last three years, so my training wasn't optimal. My goal for this year is a 24minute 10TT. For that I'll have to average about 240w for 24 minutes at my CdA. I'm already stronger than last year, but still a way from maintaining 240w on the TT bike.
When I first read this thread and saw guys older than me reporting 300w FTP, I felt a bit anemic. After researching Cotgreave's record, I feel myself a little more respectable.
If anyone has a different or better take on the capabilities of the "soon to be aged" I'd welcome the input.
Best, Bob
Great post. Like you, I like to see real data. Since this thread has started, we have seen great advances in logging accurate data, including Strava, Zwift, and other on-line communities. There are some folks on Zwift and Strava that put up serious numbers past age 40; but the days of just accepting people's claims of extraordinary progress without the supporting data, seem unnecessary. There are massive blocks of claimed improvement in this massive thread, unsupported by any posted data or race results, that appear to be pure fiction. You can certainly take the claims of faith, but extraordinary claims should require extraordinary proof--and in this context, its a simple Strava or race result link.
I live near the base of a very popular cycling hill in SE PA. If you are riding regularly in SE PA, Jug Handle Rd is one of those local legendary hills that you are going to ride hard, and there are lots of folks who do hill intervals on that hill. My PR on that hill is 6:22, which I did at 170 pounds with an FTP of about 265; and generated 330 watts for that effort (@4.2W/ kg) . (I'm 4th for riders over 45, and the the first and second place riders are local masters racing legends, near national class).
https://www.strava.com/activities/203665223#4799566856
3rd place rider is within a few seconds (6:14) Two pros did it close to 5:00, which is the all time record for that hill, and they had to be generating 5+ W/kg. The fastest rider over age 65 did it in 7:48, almost 1:30 slower than me; and the rest are all in the 9 minute range.
What that tells me is that there are very few folks over age 65 who are generating significantly more than 3 watts per kilogram on a very popular training hill for a sub 10 minute effort. You could pull other popular hills nearby and see the same phenomena. IMHO, 3 watts per kg is pretty extraordinary FTP for folks over 65. When the drop off occurs between 50-65 is unknown, but Cotgreave's record is pretty consistent with that estimate. I can tell you that there are guys in their early 60s who are still pretty darn fast in local events. 70s? they are much rarer. RDO suggests that his decline is related to intermittent training--that certainly may be true. But one's ability to train at 71, like one could at 62, and improve without injury, changes.
The same is true for running. I am consistently placing my age group (50 +) locally with 5k times less than 22 @ 7:00 pace. And you see one or two guys in their 60s breaking 22 consistently, and they are winning that group easily. If I can get back to running sub 20 m--mid 19s, which I could do pretty easily in my early 40s, then I am probably placing in competitive regional races for my age group. If you are breaking 22 minutes in a 5k at age 70, then you are a true stud. There aren't a lot of 70 year old recreational racers who can knock off a 7:00 5k pace. The same is true with cycling. The gap between 60-70 appears to be as wide as the gap between 25 and 50.
