Caught in another lie.

In article <[email hidden]>,

hotmoon said:

I think that flu is dreadful. I do not underestimate it. But let's
run the numbers and see what happens. The claim is that more than
36,000 Americans die every year of the flu. Now, where I live, 5
people have died. Since we are about half way through the flu season,
we could guess that about 10 people will die of the flu this year in
our town. Our area is the hardest hit in the USA. Our area is almost
exactly 1/700th of the US population. So, if I multiply 10 by 700, I
get, ah.... 7000. That is less than 1/5th of the reported deaths that
we can expect in the US. Advocacy groups lie.

Your local experience does not form a statistical universe. Five
cases is too small to allow you to make a proper inference for the
nation as a whole. In particular, the population makeup of your
area is probably not representative of the nation as a whole, and
we are not necessarily halfway through flu season in terms of
mortality. In fact, we almost certainly are not, because only a
few states (so far) have major flu outbreaks.

-- David Wright :: alphabeta at prodigy.net
These are my opinions only, but they're almost always correct.
"If I have not seen as far as others, it is because giants
were standing on my shoulders." (Hal Abelson, MIT)

"hotmoon" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

I think that flu is dreadful. I do not underestimate it. But let's
run the numbers and see what happens. The claim is that more than
36,000 Americans die every year of the flu. Now, where I live, 5
people have died. Since we are about half way through the flu season,
we could guess that about 10 people will die of the flu this year in
our town. Our area is the hardest hit in the USA. Our area is almost
exactly 1/700th of the US population. So, if I multiply 10 by 700, I
get, ah.... 7000. That is less than 1/5th of the reported deaths that
we can expect in the US. Advocacy groups lie.

Where are you getting your statistics? Are the five cases of flu caused
death just the five caused by the Fugian strain and reported in the
newspaper? Are the deaths in the nursing homes going unreported? And how do
you calculate that we are "about halfway through flu season"? By my
estimation, we are less than one fourth of the way through the November
through March flu season.

If anything, the death rate from influenza is under-reported. Many of the
flu deaths in the elderly will be recorded as "pneumonia" because that is a
frequent complication of the disease.

--Rich

(hotmoon) said:

I think that flu is dreadful. I do not underestimate it. But let's
run the numbers and see what happens. The claim is that more than
36,000 Americans die every year of the flu. Now, where I live, 5
people have died.

State? Town? County? What is your reporting base.

Quoted message said:

Since we are about half way through the flu season,

No, we are not. Many states, such as AZ, are just reporting
their first deaths. Case reports have not peaked.

Quoted message said:

we could guess that about 10 people will die of the flu this year in
our town. Our area is the hardest hit in the USA.

Oh really.

Quoted message said:

Our area is almost
exactly 1/700th of the US population. So, if I multiply 10 by 700, I
get, ah.... 7000. That is less than 1/5th of the reported deaths that
we can expect in the US. Advocacy groups lie.

No, they don't. Unless your area is ALSO truly representative of
the age, health, and socioeconomic population of the USA, you
can't extrapolate.

Quoted message said:

The flu is dreadful. It kills. The word "flu" should never be used
in the same sentence as "a cold". My 33 year old wife was down for 28
days with the flu, and she would scream at the top of her lungs the
pain was so bad. When I had the flu the last time, I wanted to die.
But there is no excuse for lying. Lying generates a lack of respect
for our institutions.

So stop doing it.

Tsu Dho Nimh

--
When businesses invoke the "protection of consumers," it's a lot like
politicians invoking morality and children - grab your wallet and/or
your kid and run for your life.