This tour will likely be won on the 17th (high mountaintop finish) and the 19th (ITT). Of the 6 "high mountain stages", only two -- the 8th and 17th -- end on a mountaintop after a hard clumb. All the rest end, either on a downhill run or on a small peak after a long downhill run. The 18th was made for Contador. He can pick up 2-3 minutes here. The last climb is so long and so steep, it will certainly be exciting to watch.
The third stage will be interesting because it contains some cobblestone stretches. Who is the king of the stones? It won't matter, but some will fall.
So, in reality, the crucial parts of the race can be boiled down to perhaps a couple of hours of TV.
